How do you predict how Liberal Democrats are going to do in an election? Easy.
I’ve written previously about my belief that Lib Dems are more successful electorally when the Conservative vote falls and the Labour vote rises.
I’ve noticed an interesting pattern among previous General Elections that seems to agree with my hypothesis. It is as follows:
Election: Largest Party: Did Liberals / Lib Dems gain or lose seats?
2010 Conservatives Lost
2005 Labour Gain
2001 Labour Gain
1997 Labour Gain
1992 Conservatives Lost
1987 Conservatives Lost
1983 Conservatives Gain
1979 Conservatives Lost
1974 (Oct) Labour Lost
1974 (Feb) Labour Gain
1970 Conservatives Lost
1966 Labour Gain
1964 Labour Gain
The obvious exceptions are the 1974 (Oct) and 1983 elections. In 1974 there were two elections in one year as the first had resulted in a Hung Parliament. As the party with the least money and least ability to form a Majority government, the Liberals were bound to lose seats in that situation. In 1983, with the defection of the SDP and the creation of the Alliance, this is obviously also a fair exception.
Thus, with these two elections excluded, in every election since the 1950’s, our party has gained seats when Labour have become the largest party and lost seats when the Conservatives have become the largest party. I suspect that 2015 could be a similarly exceptional election as it will have our governmental incumbency as an added factor. That aside, I see this as an excellent and difficult to dispute piece of evidence that it is only to our electoral benefit when the Conservatives fall on hard times.
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