Which parties’ voters would consider voting UKIP most, and which parties are UKIP voters most likely to consider voting for?
This shows a few interesting signs. Almost a third of Plaid Cymru voters would consider voting for UKIP, while only 1% of UKIP voters would consider voting for Plaid Cymru. The figures will be distorted slightly because most UKIP voters don’t live in Wales anyway, but it suggests that there is a huge opportunity for UKIP to steal votes from PC that they have not yet managed to do.
Secondly, in Lab-Lib and Con-Lib marginals, a rising UKIP vote would almost certainly be a good thing for the Lib Dems. The only places where the Lib Dems could do badly out of UKIP gaining votes are in SNP facing marginals and where the Green party are a major force.
From a Liberal point of view, I’d suggest that we should be quite relaxed about UKIP gaining votes, no matter how much they may whine about being the new ‘third party’.