Fairly high on Labour’s list of priority seats in 2015 is Cardiff Central, held by Jenny Willott since 2005. The bookies have Labour as favourites to win. It sounds like the kind of place that Labour should expect to win, particularly since they made massive gains in Cardiff’s local elections in May 2012. Well, I had a look at how Jenny’s constituents voted in those local elections and got the following result:
Of course General Elections have higher turnouts than Local Elections, and not everybody votes the same way in both elections, and in the space of three years, many people’s opinions will change. But the fact that Labour couldn’t even get close to overtaking the Liberal Democrats in 2012 makes me sceptical that they’re likely to in 2015. I’m tempted by those odds on the yellows retaining the seat.